After a Beautiful Sunday, Storm Chances Return
First, I hope everyone had a fun, healthy, and safe Holliday Weekend. We had some rain on Saturday, but the later afternoon and evening turned out to be great! Sunday, however, was beautiful all day long.
Unfortunately, things will change to start off the new week. Showers and even thunderstorm changes will return for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. This post, however, will only focus on Monday. I want to take this one day at a time. So, tonight we’ll talk about Monday’s chances. At some point Monday afternoon or early evening, I’ll talk about Tuesday, then on Tuesday I’ll talk about Wednesday.
So it now looks that Monday will have some scattered showers, and it looks like it may be through the day. It does look, though, that the showers stay away from Long Island and will stay more towards areas around New Jersey and Pennsylvania. This is the RPM model on Monday morning:
You see above the chances of showers come in after 9AM. The activity, according to this model (RPM) should pick up throughout the morning.
As we go into the afternoon, the RPM predicts more scattered activity with pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms. This is especially for southern NJ and western NJ.
You can see that the showers and storms stay away from Long Island and they should stay mostly dry. Even in New Jersey, the best chance (according to the RPM) for thunderstorm activity is in southern NJ and western NJ. All of New Jersey, however, could see scattered showers/storms. The best CAPE values are in southern New Jersey for Monday, but even there, the CAPE values are not impressive. So my conclusion for Monday’s forecast is: there will be scattered showers/storms throughout the day. There may be some strong storms around, but I don’t think there will be anything severe. If outdoors, keep an eye to the sky. Be mindful that this is not a widespread event, nor will Tuesday & Wednesday be a widespread event.
Stay tuned for the latest updates and remember there will be another post on Monday about Tuesday’s weather threat.
— Jonathon Rocco