Active tropical atlantic

Good saturday afternoon everyone.

Well , as of the middle of august the tropics in the atlantic was extremely quiet. August 15th came around which by many is the official start of hurricane season in the east and wouldn’t you know the first wave came off cape verde. Even in strong el nino years the atlantic has an uncanny way of waking up just around this time. Here we have hurricane danny who undoubtedly beat all odds and became a major category 3 storm just the other day. However , as forecasted danny is just starting to get into a unfavorable shear environment and the results have been a slow decline in strength. ┬áDanny is no longer a cat 3 and of this post has declined to a cat 1. The latest forecast track has shifted a bit north and will leave danny or whatever is left of around the bahamas by wednesday or so. Danny as you know is starting to be influenced by upper level wind shear. This is evident by looking at the water vapor images of convection being displaced in a larger area above the center of circulation. With vertical wind shear the storms become more slanted and therefore latent heat release is displaced no longer directly above the circulation. This basically disrupts the machine or the heat engine and begins to weaken the storm. Majority of convection is still over the center of circulation and the storm still has a healthy outflow circulation but time is definitely running out here. The shear will begin to get stronger and dry air will start to work itself in. Danny will continue to weaken and become a tropical storm before it reaches any caribbean island and likely a depression by the time it reaches the florida coastal waters.



This disturbance just off the cape verde has my attention because unlike danny if it does form over next few days will be in a much more favorable environment for development. The following graphic shows the current shear vs the shear profile down the road.


As you can the environment is much better , and because of danny the dry air that is present now will longer be evident or as strong down the road.

The disturbance currently just SE of the cape verde is showing signs of organization , however not low level circulation. This disturbance must be watched as it has an excellent chance of development over the next 4-7 days.

While i cannot do specifics on any of these disturbances it is however essential that everyone along the coastal waters have a hurricane kit and a preparedness guide. The following is a link to great information on hurricanes and materials we should all have just in case.TropicalCyclones11





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