A very volatile and potential rainy & stormy next 10 days.

High pressure will be in control through the 1st half of today , but a warm front at 850mb & at the surface will start to invade the region. The best locations for strong/severe storms this afternoon & evening will be in W/C PA & W/C NY with frequent lightning , wind gusts above 50 mph & very heavy rainfall.

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The warm front will continue to move & linger over the region sunday night into monday morning with showers & storms capable of heavy rainfall isolated wind gusts above 50mph & frequent lightning.

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The next trigger or catalyst for strong/severe storms will come monday night / tuesday with a cold front with much stronger dynamics such as enhanced wind shear , moisture , and plenty of  heat warming in the afternoon to spark severe thunderstorms and an isolated tornado with heavy downpours , wind gusts 50+ mph , large hail , frequent lightning. The potential also exists for late week with yet another strong cold front, however at this time the atmospheric dynamics are vague.

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what kept most of the mid atlantic / northeast very dry with drought conditions for much of april – may was simply the thermal gradient that setup for us was not conducive to rainfall. however , what is starting to evolve with the model guidance is the total opposite with a much tighter gradient setting up between NE & the DC/BALT region. This gradient should allow many chances for showers & storms to invade the region as we clash between the polar jet & subtropical jet influences

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To pinpoint locations that will receive heavy storms when dealing with convective dynamics is nearly impossible. While some locations can receive a months of rain in 5 hours others get nothing , many factors like outflow boundaries & coastal fronts or mid level disturbances can either enhance or cancel each other out.

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