A very volatile and potential rainy & stormy next 10 days.
High pressure will be in control through the 1st half of today , but a warm front at 850mb & at the surface will start to invade the region. The best locations for strong/severe storms this afternoon & evening will be in W/C PA & W/C NY with frequent lightning , wind gusts above 50 mph & very heavy rainfall.
The warm front will continue to move & linger over the region sunday night into monday morning with showers & storms capable of heavy rainfall isolated wind gusts above 50mph & frequent lightning.
The next trigger or catalyst for strong/severe storms will come monday night / tuesday with a cold front with much stronger dynamics such as enhanced wind shear , moisture , and plenty of heat warming in the afternoon to spark severe thunderstorms and an isolated tornado with heavy downpours , wind gusts 50+ mph , large hail , frequent lightning. The potential also exists for late week with yet another strong cold front, however at this time the atmospheric dynamics are vague.
what kept most of the mid atlantic / northeast very dry with drought conditions for much of april – may was simply the thermal gradient that setup for us was not conducive to rainfall. however , what is starting to evolve with the model guidance is the total opposite with a much tighter gradient setting up between NE & the DC/BALT region. This gradient should allow many chances for showers & storms to invade the region as we clash between the polar jet & subtropical jet influences
To pinpoint locations that will receive heavy storms when dealing with convective dynamics is nearly impossible. While some locations can receive a months of rain in 5 hours others get nothing , many factors like outflow boundaries & coastal fronts or mid level disturbances can either enhance or cancel each other out.