A LOOK AT TODAY AND THE WEEK AHEAD

HOT AND HUMID WITH STORMS FOR SOME TO START WEEK , MUCH COOLER AND WETTER TO END THE WORK WEEK!.

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Good Morning Everyone ,

A mid & upper level vortex centered over james bay in canada is forecasted to move slowly eastward.

this will result in a cyclonic flow & enhanced troughing around the eastern US.

As a weakening cold front moves eastward across the northeast US a gradual development of scattered showers & storms will develop.

Diurnal heating will result in mixed layer cape to push into 1000/2000 j/kg range for northeast / new england.

However storm cell development is expected to run parallel to the frontal zone , and unidirectional with height  which may limit severe potential somewhat.

Still some strong storms will be capable of damaging winds , large hail.

Areas of concern this afternoon / eve western PA , upstate ny , VT , NH , ME

latest hi-res nam model from this morning

NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne4_f12NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne4_f15NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne4_f18NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne4_f21

GRPH_24HRFRONTS_NATGRPH_36HRFRONTS_NAT

The threat for isolated strong / severe storms do exist late tonight through tuesday early afternoon for nyc metro , CT , LI  , however  , you have a cold front that is weakening with the best dynamics for strong/severe storms well N & W of forecast area.

We clear out tuesday afternoon with sunshine and steadily lower humidity as dry air moves into region.

wednesday is clear with lower humidity and temps in the mid-upper 80s to near 90 around philly/DC.

The pattern then gets very interesting for thursday and especially friday with the potential for a pretty good soaking rain event.

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The first place i look for models suggesting a coastal storm or wet weather along the east coast is right here

irtempanimolra_last30days-3plots

What this tells me is convection around the dateline is active and robust , this supports a ULL south of the aleutions which tele connects a trough in the east and active weather.

With the OLR anomalies shown right , you can see (blue) the steady convection building the past week.

The latest model guidance has an area of low pressure that will track from the tennessee river valley to the coast of delaware thursday eve on through friday.

rainfall amounts at this time will range from .50″ to as much as 2″ in some locations

The sneek peak into the weekend right now looks pretty good as the area of low pressure exits on friday

The new york 7 day forecast

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Meteorologist Steve Garry

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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