A Look Ahead
Continuation of Summer 2015
As most have come to realize, this years already sizzling summer is nothing like last years cool summer. Our weather team (NoVa Weather Center, DMV Forecaster, and The Weather Man) predicted above average temps to last for most of the summer, and with that above average heat comes a significantly active severe weather pattern. Most concerning of these threats is unusually large hail (for our area) and the possibility of a Derecho.
Just like the heat wave caused by a SE ridge in May, we will see many heat waves flirt with some daily records. However, due to the unbelievably powerful cold front that brought damp and dreary conditions to much of the east, we don’t think June can break a monthly record. This heat is one of the factors that is making our environment suitable for a Derecho. A combination of extremely hot temps, and humidity in the 70’s and 80’s makes the perfect recipe. The most likely time period for a Derecho to form would be now and into July, but they still are possible even later. Will we necessarily get a Derecho? No, but its far more likely this year.
In the nearer future, the next 15 days seem to be very unsettled and crazy. According to one of our affiliates, Dominic Blumm, “The chance we will see severe weather throughout the next 15 days is in my opinion is 100%, a set deal.” As we as forecasters can’t really say “100%”, we do think its something that should be watched. The North East and Mid-Atlantic tend to handle severe weather pretty well, but sometimes individual people are unprepared when severe weather strikes. The possible severe WX in the next 15 days is not a sure thing, but please pay attention to forecasts as specifics are prone to change making the exact timing and intensity tricky to figure out. No dough we are in for a crazy summer, but enjoy the nice days we do have!