4th of July: Rain or Shine?

There has been lots of confusion the past week over how July 4th plays out. Some say rainy, some say early rain then sunny, some say a complete washout. Well, here is what I say……

 

I think this Saturday will not be a complete washout. As I look at all the model predictions, they all have their own opinions and the GFS is the most bullish on a washout. In fact, the GFS seems to be a little bit on its own. So, here are the different model predictions, and then I’ll talk about how I think everything plays out.

NAM:

NAM at 12z Saturday

NAM at 12z Saturday

 

NAM at 18z Saturday

NAM at 18z Saturday

 

NAM at 21z Saturday

NAM at 21z Saturday

 

NAM DISCUSSION:          I can’t completely agree with the NAM. It shows above basically dry conditions across the state. In between the time frames, if this were an hour-to-hour model, I’m sure it would be showing at least some rain, especially towards the western part of the state. I can agree with that part.

 

HRRR

HRRR at 7:10 AM Saturday

HRRR at 7:10 AM Saturday

 

HRRR at 10:15 AM Saturday

HRRR at 10:15 AM Saturday

 

HRRR DISCSSION:          The HRRR starts to show the rain out to our west falling apart. We’ll have to see where it goes with this later on this evening when the time can go further.

 

GFS

GFS at 06z Saturday

GFS at 06z Saturday

 

GFS at 12z Saturday

GFS at 12z Saturday

 

GFS at 18z Saturday

GFS at 18z Saturday

 

GFS at 06z Sunday

GFS at 06z Sunday

 

GFS DISCUSSION:          Like I said before, now you see that the GFS is the most bullish of these three models.

 

CONCLUSION:          I think July 4th will not be a complete washout, and I am thinking that there really will not be much rain. Any rain that enters the area will not be widespread. There could be some showers in the morning, and some scattered pop-up showers throughout the day. However, I think it turns out to be one of those days that are not bad with some clouds, some scattered showers, and possibly seeing some sunshine poking through those clouds in some areas, mainly inland areas. So that is how I think the 4th of July plays out. Just keep the umbrella handy through the day in the event that you get caught in a pop-up shower. These showers shouldn’t last long. I think any outdoor plans should not be hurt, but if you have a light shower, just take shelter for a little while until it ends. Or you can do what I did and have a tent set up outside. Some showers may have a brief pocket of moderate rain, but I think we stay on the lighter side for most areas.

The National Weather Service has the same idea, with northwestern NJ possibly getting up to .10″ of rain, while the majority of the state is getting around .1″ of rain.

NWS rainfall (Days 1-3)

NWS rainfall (Days 1-3)

 

Stay tuned for continuous updates as this forecast evolves. Eventually it comes down to just seeing how the radar looks Saturday morning and determining the future.

Have a Happy 4th of July everyone and stay safe!

— Jonathon Rocco

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