Big, Messy, Tropical Like Rain coming!

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Well what a washout that was! Yes, as I said in the post last night – I had a feeling this would bust down here on the low side…Although I did not think THAT low – We got NADA! Just flakes! Disappointing…as this winter has been the majority of the time. Well, we must move on… Let’s see whats going on.

Our low is currently sitting and strengthening over Louisiana with the associated Upper Low still over East TX. These will continue to strengthen, and eventually the UL will capture the SL and the two will bomb out.

Surface Analysis shows the 996mb low over N LA

                                                                                   Surface Analysis shows the 996mb low over N LA

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                                                                            500mb (H5) Analysis shows the UL over E TX

 

The HRRR is forecasting the Low to track and intensify to a 981mb center pressure by 10am tomorrow with very impressive winds and snows on the NW side of the Low track, heavy rain on the W/SW side (us)

hrrr_mslp_conus2_16(1)hrrr_gust_east_16hrrr_ref_east_16

So, while we will miss out on the snow, we will get our fair share of rain. The heaviest rain will be in the late afternoon/evening Wednesday through Thursday early AM as the storm passes to our NW on its NE track and intensifies. A cold front will drape across N-S associated with the system and will pass through Late Wednesday night/Early Thursday am providing a good chance for a squall line.

nam_ref_neng_14gfs_z500_vort_conus_8

This must be watched as it could bring damaging winds and heavy rain for a period of time as the front passes.

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Some back-end snow showers are possible Thursday evening/night as the Low moves ENE of us, but I would not worry to much about this.

Total precip should be 1-2″ w/ locally higher amounts:

hrdps_qpf_boston_49

And that is it for now! Have a great evening guys! We will talk about next week’s threats either tomorrow or Thursday!

Forecaster: Remy M. 

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