Big Storm, Tricky Forecast!

Updated: 0230z/21:30/9:30pm

Before beginning this post, I just want to introduce myself! This is my first post here, and I am quite honored to have been asked to be a contributing author on this amazing site and resource. I am Remy Mermelstein, and I have my own weather site www.weatherinthehud.com and twitter page (@WeatherInTheHud). I started WeatherInTheHud along with my good friend Dillon almost 3 years ago, and we specialize in the weather for NYC area into the Lower Hudson Valley/Tri State Area. This below is our forecast discussion from tonight that was sent out to the public. Enjoy!

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We have the MOST TRICKY forecast of the season (SO FAR) coming for Tonight into Tomorrow afternoon…so, Dillon and I here at WeatherInTheHUD have been butting heads all day with ideas and looking at the models, what can happen, whats this showing, whats that showing, BUT NOW it really is down to looking at what is ACTUALLY happening out there and “now casting”.. So, here is an analysis on whats going on for tomorrow.

Our Low Pressure system is currently sitting over eastern North Carolina, 994mB, strengthening as it moves on a NNE path. Keep in mind the storm is 30-50 miles further west than the modelling thought it would be at this time. Our second low, the clipper is over the Great Lakes region, also a 994mb low.

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Because the storm is continuing to go slightly west of the models predictions, I would say that this will keep it on a track to take it near the benchmark (40°N/70°W) and Nantucket. If the primary low, or the clipper was not here then I would say yes, its time for an all out blizzard…HOWEVER, because this clipper is maintaining its strength and moving East quite fast, it is causing heights to rise over our area, and combined with the warm front being dragged along with it, warm air advection is taking place and our cold air is being eaten away. THAT being said, we get into a wrinkle as our Nor’Easter moves up the coast…watch the images below and pay close attention to the Low’s Center pressure as this storm moves.

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+10 hours

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+15 hours

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If you notice, this storm ends up at the VERY LEAST at 980mb by 10am tomorrow morning…Now, the way the storm has been acting and the models have been acting, I would not be surprised/kind of expect it to be 50 miles further NW than shown on here at hour 15, but the part I want to emphasize is that this is a STRONG storm, and as it strengthens it will begin to make its own cold air, what we call dynamic cooling. How? Because as it strengthens it pulls in more air into the center, and as it does that the air moves faster, and the circulation speeds up. The air in a storm goes in a loop from bottom to top to bottom to top and so on. As air rises, it cools, and the faster it rises the quicker it cools and the faster this entire loop or column of air moves the more cold air the storm makes. This cold air can begin to overtake warm air on the surface. NOW, here is where we get even more iffy…come take a look at the HRRR 850mb temps..

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ITS COLD! -1C! 850mb is not that far up, and the column just gets colder and colder as you get higher.. SO here is the 500 MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION…do the warmer temps at the bottom of the column, or at the surface, in the mid 30’s to low 40’s…are those temps going to be able to MELT the precipitation that is falling, IF that precipitation is frozen? The further north you get the better chance you have at this, and the better chance you have at snow.

I am going on the line here, but I have had a funny feeling about this storm since it appeared on the models…and right now I think that once you get North of New Haven, Peekskill, and especially into the higher elevations you have a good chance of seeing some wet heavy snow fall! Now will it accumulate? Probably not much unless at high elevations right now…but CAN it accumulate? Yes, if it falls hard enough and cold enough I could see some accumulations.

For accumulating snow you gotta get up into NE Pennsylvania I think, NW NJ, Interior NE in the Catskills, possibly Orange County and north of Rte 84 in CT, into Interior Mass, and then the real snowstorm begins getting into Maine, but I gotta tell you, I have a feeling there will be surprises with this..

OK, south of those areas, south of Stamford, Peekskill, New Haven I think we could definitely see some wet flakes/slush fall out of the sky, although accumulations of any sort I think will be hard to come by unless we have a real miracle/surprise…but it will be fun to watch if it happens! NYC and south – you stay all rain…sorry guys!

The storm is a fast mover – should be out of here by Midday Saturday, leaving partly sunny skies and a BRISK wind in its wake…then a big cool down as arctic air invades

Hope this helps, and as always have a great evening!

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